Will Ian bring storm surge, evacuations to the Florida Keys?

Florida Keys officials delayed any evacuation decision on Saturday morning based on early forecasts showing Ian would pass through the island chain later and further west than expected.

“At this time, we will not be making any decisions on evacuation, sheltering, or further protective measures,” Monroe County Emergency Management Director Shannon Weiner said in a statement. “We will reassess today at 3 p.m.”

Jonathan Rizzo, meteorologist responsible for coordinating warnings with the National Weather Service in Key West, told Monroe County officials on a conference call Saturday that the Keys would likely begin to experience high Ian winds after sunset. sun Monday evening and Tuesday morning.

The tropical storm could then be a powerful Category 3 hurricane, inflicting storm surge in Key West and the Lower and Middle Keys — but it’s hard to say how much surge is forecast, Rizzo said.

And the storm’s late arrival made that prediction even more difficult.

“It puts the carrot out of reach,” Rizzo said. “My informational carrot is further away.”

Christopher Rothwell, chief meteorologist at NWS Key West, said in an interview that tides are already abnormally high this time of year, so Keys residents should expect some push from Ian.

“We already have untimely flooding. When I have offshore winds, it’s not going to improve,” he said.

Rizzo said the storm’s expected late arrival also predicts sustained winds and gusty winds.

“We are probably looking at terrestrial winds. The devil is in the details about their strength,” he said.

Rizzo added that as the track continues to show Ian moving further west, whatever effects will be felt in the Keys will be much greater in Key West and the Lower and Middle Keys.

The storm looks less and less like an event from Islamorada to Ocean Reef in North Key Largo.

“The threat of hurricane-force winds is receding for the Upper Keys,” Rizzo said.

The timing of Tropical Storm Ian’s passage near or near the Keys also makes a difference to storm surges. A royal tide, one of the highest tides of the year, is set peak on sunday. Tides are higher than normal for days after the peak of a royal tide.

The National Hurricane Center predicts several feet of storm surge for the Cayman Islands, where Tropical Storm Ian is expected to hit Monday, but has not yet predicted storm surge levels for the Florida Keys or elsewhere in Florida.

Miami Herald editor Alex Harris contributed to this report.

This report will be updated.

This story was originally published September 24, 2022 9:58 a.m.